Центробанк предложил три сценария дальнейшего развития экономики России

Здание Банка России

Дата публикации: 11.09.2020

Госрегулятор попытался спрогнозивать, как будет развиваться российская экономика в условиях пандемии коронавируса. Стоит отметить, что ни в одном из трех сценариев нефть не является ключевой предпосылкой.

Базовый сценарий предполагает, что экономика после спада 2020 года начнет постепенно набирать обороты и выйдет на докризисный уровень ко II кварталу 2022 года. По другому сценарию, экономика будет расти медленно (от 1,5-2,5% в год) и на уровень, который был до начала пандемии, удастся вернуться лишь в начале 2023 года. Ну и по самому худшему сценарию, экономика сможет окончательно оправиться от удара только к 2024 году.

Эксперты отмечают, что обсуждать и спорить с прогнозами, заложенными в сценарии, сейчас очень трудно – как будет развиваться ситуация не может предсказать никто: помимо пандемии, могут ужесточиться и торговые войны, а на Россию могут наложить новые санкции.

Источник: РБК

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